Brett Huston
www.FanNation.com
10. Mississippi State (+13.5) at No. 21 South Carolina
Saturday, 12:30 p.m. EST, Lincoln Financial Sports
If you're a fan of offensive football, hide the women and children. This won't be pretty. The Bulldogs have the worst offense in the SEC and South Carolina's ranks ninth in the conference. Both teams rank in the top-third in the country in total defense, and these teams have actually played somebodies, rather than the out-of-conference garbage most teams have faced at this point in the season. South Carolina is coming off a tough loss in Baton Rouge, where they actually struck first against LSU only to face a Tiger onslaught from there on out. In their two conference games thus far, the Gamecocks have scored 16 points both times, so for them to be favored by nearly two touchdowns, even at home against a bottom-tier SEC club, is a bit mysterious. Sure, Spurrier's boys will probably get their offense revved up at some point this season, but don't count on it being this week. Redshirt freshman QB Chris Smelley is relieving senior Blake Mitchell as the starter against the Bulldogs, and though he's played earlier this season, it's hard to imagine he'll inject enough life in the offense for them to go on an offensive rampage this quick.
Neither Sylvester Croom nor Mississippi State fans seem to have an idea who the team's quarterback is. Michael Henig, the starter at the beginning of the season, got hurt two weeks ago at Auburn, and that may be a blessing in disguise. Henig's performance against LSU in the opener was one of the worst performances you'll ever see in a Division I college football game (granted, the opponent may have had just a bit to do with that). Josh Riddell and Wesley Carroll haven't exactly lit it up either, but if they can hand the ball off and avoid turnovers, they'll be a step above Henig. One aspect not to be overlooked in this one is the absence of South Carolina linebacker Jasper Brinkley, who is out for the year after spraining his right knee last week. Anthony Dixon should have much more room to run without the Gamecocks' defensive star.
The pick: South Carolina 22, Mississippi State 16
9. UCLA (+2) at Oregon State
Saturday, 6:30 p.m. EST, Fox Sports Net
Who would have thought Utah would play such a prominent role in analyzing a match-up between two Pac-10 opponents? The Beavers shut down the Utes 24-7 in the first week of the season, and two weeks ago, Utah smoked a ranked UCLA team 44-6. By that math, Oregon State should win this one by 55. Umm, yeah. This one should be tight throughout, which would be a bit of a change from the Beavers' games early on, in which they've either blown out their opponent or been blown out. They managed to not only blow a 19-0 first quarter lead last weekend at Arizona State, but the Sun Devils scored 44 of the next 51 points, taking a 44-26 lead before Oregon State scored a late TD to make the score somewhat close. That being said, the Sun Devils have been on fire early on, and there's no shame in losing in Tempe.
Now it's back to Corvallis, where the Beavers have looked strong in their two home games. Sean Canfield was dreadful last week, throwing five interceptions on the road, overshadowing a strong performance from running back Yvenson Bernard and Canfield's receivers. The Beavers need to ride Bernard as much as possible while taking some shots downfield with Sammie Stroughter, but the running game should be priority number one. UCLA has a strange situation under center - Ben Olson sat out last week's game against Washington as backup Pat Cowan and the Bruins put up 44 points; now it's Cowan who's hurt and the shaky Olson is back under center. Like Oregon State, UCLA's best recipe for success should be on the ground, with the tandem of Kahlil Bell and Chris Markey. For the Bruins' sake, they better win this one, or the temperature of Karl Dorrell's already hot seat will rise again.
The pick: Oregon State 37, UCLA 34
8. No. 1 USC (-20.5) at Washington
Saturday, 8 p.m. EST, ABC
It's somewhat strange that USC signing an exclusive rights TV deal with ABC hasn't made headlines the way Notre Dame's deal with NBC did. What's that? There is no such deal? Must just seem that way. The traveling Trojan circus hits Seattle this week, its third straight primetime performance on Mickey Mouse's network, to face a Washington team that's shown glimpses of brilliance while experiencing some major growing pains. USC hasn't been tested so far during its first three games, but No. 1 is getting tested in the polls. Coming into the season, few doubted the Trojans holding the top spot. But after the way LSU and Oklahoma have looked, USC faces the challenge of not just having to win, but win impressively each week, in order to stay on top. They've done nothing to disappoint thus far, even going into Lincoln and destroying Nebraska for their signature win to this point in the season. But considering the ‘Huskers gave up 600 yards of offense last week and nearly lost to Ball State, is that win really any good?
Washington, whether the strength of schedule computers agree or not, has the nation's toughest schedule. They've already played ranked teams in Ohio State and Boise State, along with what was once an 11th-ranked UCLA team and a Syracuse team that dismantled Louisville last week. After USC comes back-to-back games with Arizona State and at Oregon. Later in the year, Cal rolls into town and the Huskies fly to Hawaii to face a likely undefeated team in their season finale. The point here is that Washington won't be intimidated by USC. Unfortunately for UW, the Trojans won't be intimidated by the raucous Husky Stadium crowd. Jake Locker can do magical things, and eventually might win a Heisman for Washington, but going up against USC's outstanding defense is a large task for any freshman. On the other side of the ball, the Huskies rank last in the Pac-10 in rushing defense, and USC's offensive line has probably been salivating since early Sunday about pushing around that defensive front. Look for some huge holes for whomever USC decides to hand the ball to and John David Booty will be able to continue his Heisman campaign once the running game gets started.
The pick: USC 43, Washington 20
7. Auburn (+18) at No. 4 Florida
Saturday, 8 p.m. EST, ESPN
Going into The Swamp at night is not an enviable task, particularly if these things are also working against you: 1) you were the only team to knock off the Gators a year ago, depriving them of an undefeated season due to a questionable officiating decision, thus making this a "revenge" game; 2) your quarterback has a 1-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio; and 3) you were one drive away from being 0-3 at home to start the season. Throw in having to deal with the rising legend that is Tim Tebow and it could be a long night in Gainesville for the Tigers.
Auburn's defense should be able to keep the team in this game, but for how long is the question. Florida's offense is averaging 50 points per contest. The possibility of Florida looking ahead to next week's showdown in Baton Rouge is certainly out there, but given the Gators' shaky performance at Ole Miss last week and the circumstances surrounding their loss last year at Auburn, it's hard to believe Urban Meyer won't have his team ready to play. Percy Harvin is nursing a hip injury and Andre Caldwell is hurt as well, but Tebow has enough weapons that he should be just fine. It's hard to say the same for Auburn, with Brandon Cox struggling mightily through his first three games as a senior starter before getting a little bit of mojo back last week against New Mexico State. He'll need to play the game of his life if Auburn is to stand a chance, and Tommy Tuberville would be wise to let him try. Florida's defense is tough but can be attacked through the air. Whether Cox will be able to hear any plays coming into his helmet is another story.
The pick: Florida 38, Auburn 17
6. Kansas State (+14.5) at No. 7 Texas
Saturday, 3:30 p.m. EST, ABC
This is the sneaky, under-the-radar game of the week, an honor that would have gone to Penn State-Illinois had the Nittany Lions gone into Champaign undefeated. But let's consider the circumstances here. Texas got fat last week beating up its in-state friend Rice, and all of a sudden a shaky Longhorns' offense is good to go heading into next week's titanic clash against Oklahoma in Dallas. For quite a few years this decade, it's been Texas that's been the higher-ranked team going into the Red River Shootout, only to get stomped by the Sooners, and Texas would love nothing more than to turn the tables on their bitter rivals.
But Kansas State's on the schedule? No one in Texas save for Mack Brown is thinking about the Wildcats, but they should be. Kansas State came within a whisker of beating Auburn in the season opener (back when that would have been considered a really big deal) and have had two weeks to prepare for their trip to Austin. And it's hard to imagine the ‘Cats will be looking ahead to their game next week against rival Kansas (no disrespect intended, Jayhawk fans). Kansas State isn't flashy, but they've got the horses on defense to frustrate Colt McCoy and Jamaal Charles. That leaves it up to Josh Freeman, whose completion percentage has been excellent through three games. Jordy Nelson has been the team's big play threat, but Freeman will have to be watch out for an outstanding Texas secondary when looking for his favorite receiver. This is the very definition of a trap game, but being at home should be enough to make the difference for the ‘Horns.
The pick: Texas 28, Kansas State 21
5. No. 19 Penn State (-3) at Illinois
Saturday, Noon EST, Big Ten Network
After getting its annual Michigan meltdown out of the way in September, Penn State can now get on with the first week of the rest of its life. The blueprint to beat the Wolverines was out there and the Nittany Lions chose to shred those plans and pound the football between the tackles, never a good idea when you're lacking a competent tailback and decent run blocking. But here's the thing: what Armanti Edwards and Dennis Dixon did isn't just a blueprint to beat Michigan; it's a game-plan that, if executed well, can beat pretty much any defense in the Big Ten, Penn State's included.
Juice Williams hasn't quite exploded yet in his sophomore season like some were inclined to believe, but he hasn't had to. Rashard Mendenhall would be the talk of the Big Ten at tailback if it wasn't for Mike Hart. The junior is on pace for more than 1,600 yards on the ground. Freshman wideout Arrelious Benn is getting more adjusted to big-time college football each week. Basically, this Illini team is ready to break out against a quality opponent at any time, and with Penn State and Wisconsin coming to Champaign consecutively, odds are it's coming soon. For those of you inclined to gamble, though, bet on it happening next week against a questionable Badgers' defense. Penn State is better than it showed a week ago against Michigan, and will move the ball on the Illini. Look for the defense to sit back and force Williams to beat them through the air, something the young QB may not be able to do - at least for one more week.
The pick: Penn State 24, Illinois 13
4. No. 24 Alabama (+2.5) at Florida State in Jacksonville
Saturday, 5 p.m. EST, CBS
Despite hailing from Alabama, Bobby Bowden has never played his home-state squad, and his first meeting with the Tide will come at a somewhat neutral site in Jacksonville. This one is a big deal for Bowden, who was ready to take the head coaching job at Alabama in 1986, but the offer from Tuscaloosa never came. So he built Florida State into a perennial national title contender over the next 15 years, and now, after the program has been down recently, he'd love one more shot at glory before he retires. Off the field, the program is undergoing some major investigations into alleged cheating in the classroom involving 13 players and some faculty members.
Frankly, we're not sure if Florida State is any good three games into the season. They looked absolutely awful in the first half at Clemson, made somewhat of a game of things in the second half, struggled to beat a bad UAB team in Tallahassee, and then did virtually nothing offensively at Colorado in a 16-6 win. Drew Weatherford's stats aren't bad, but he's always one throw away from going into a virtual hibernation, and it must say something about the team's confidence in backup Xavier Lee that he hasn't been given more of a chance to play. Alabama has played some thrillers in the past two weeks, and last week's comeback against Georgia fell just short in overtime. John Parker Wilson has been excellent, and freshman Terry Grant has been a breath of fresh air on the ground. Florida State's defense will have to keep this one close, but it'll be their offense that will have to make a play if they're to win.
The pick: Alabama 26, Florida State 17
3. No. 23 Michigan State (+7.5) at No. 9 Wisconsin
Saturday, 3:30 p.m. EST, ABC
It seems like a loss in this game could set one of these programs in a free-fall, with Michigan State destined for its annual October swoon and Wisconsin seemingly living on borrowed time despite its lofty ranking. But John L. Smith is long gone, and with the Spartans run-pass balance, maybe this is the year they surprise people and don't fold before Halloween. Javon Ringer and Jehuu Caulcrick have taken the pressure off first-year starter Brian Hoyer, but Hoyer has been able to make some plays of his own, albeit against some suspect competition to this point. Still, with the tailback tandem having rushed for at least 300 yards apiece, the Spartans will go as far as their ground game takes them. But Wisconsin has to be conscious of wide receiver Devin Thomas, who is capable of hurting the Badgers deep.
Wisconsin started off with a fairly comfortable victory against a decent Washington State team and has since looked shaky (UNLV), defenseless (The Citadel) and offenseless (Iowa). Not exactly a way to inspire confidence for a team ranked in the preseason Top 10. Yet through it all, the Badgers have found a way to win as they settle into the Big 10 slate. And even though last week's victory over Iowa wasn't pretty, that's Wisconsin football. P.J. Hill has been strong as expected, but quarterback Tyler Donovan has shown an ability to make something out of nothing, something previous Badger signal-callers struggled to do. Donovan's brilliant 29-yard scramble for a touchdown out in Vegas saved Wisconsin from a potential overtime duel with the Rebels, and he's thrown seven TDs to just one interception so far. It's the defensive side where the Badgers need to shore things up, something that'll be far easier if star cornerback Jack Ikegwuonu is healthy.
The pick: Wisconsin 24, Michigan State 17
2. No. 5 West Virginia (-6.5) at No. 18 South Florida
Friday, 8 p.m. EST, ESPN2
This would be the landmark win that Jim Leavitt and his USF Bulls are looking for. Having not existed as a football program 10 years ago, Leavitt has done an amazing job building USF from the ground up, and his team has won some big games along the way, including a demolition of Louisville two years ago and a 24-19 win at West Virginia one year ago. But those were still under-the-radar USF teams. Now, people are getting a sense how good this program could be. No, they won't be the favorites Friday night at Raymond James Stadium, but West Virginia will be fully aware what kind of team it's facing.
Stop Pat White and Steve Slaton and you'll stop the Mountaineers. Stop Tom Brady, Laurence Maroney, Randy Moss and you'll stop the Patriots. The point is even though you may know what's coming and when it's coming, that doesn't mean you can stop it. Whereas you know Brady and the Patriots will come out five wide, looking to spread the field and throw the ball all day, you know White and Slaton are going to come out and try to beat you by getting their exceptional speed outside. South Florida has by far the toughest defense the Mountaineers have seen to this point, and they bottled up the terrific tandem a year ago, so odds are they won't let West Virginia get close to the 525-yard average the blue and gold have racked up on offense. On the flip side, Bulls quarterback Matt Grothe is a star in the making, having engineered USF's stunning overtime win at Auburn and throwing four touchdowns without a pick this year. But he'll need to get freshman tailback Mike Ford a heavy dose of carries against a West Virginia defense that, despite supposedly being the team's Achilles' heal, has been a strong suit four games into the season.
The pick: South Florida 30, West Virginia 27
1. No. 6 California (+6) at No. 12 Oregon
Saturday, 3:30 p.m. EST, ABC
I think ABC has enough 3:30 games tomorrow. There are no less than five games being broadcast over-the-air by the "ESPN on ABC" crew in that time frame, at least three of which should be excellent games, depriving much of the nation of seeing those games. Only 20 percent of the country will get this one, all on the west coast, which is a shame for the best game of the week, the unofficial "Who Will Be USC's Greatest Challenge" Bowl. If there were no preseason rankings, the Ducks would be ahead of the Bears. Sure, Cal knocked off a mediocre Tennessee team at home, but Oregon dismantled Michigan in the Big House and a decent Fresno State team in Eugene. Then last week, after inexplicably falling behind Stanford 31-21, the Ducks reeled off the game's final 34 points to win 55-31. Yeah, Dennis Dixon and his boys have a little bit of firepower.
That's not to say Cal is lacking offensively. Nate Longshore has been good, but Justin Forsett has stood out in the backfield since being called upon to replace Marshawn Lynch. And DeSean Jackson has been exciting to watch as usual, but he's only averaging 8.9 yards per catch and has yet to catch a touchdown pass. They need more out of their big playmaker in Eugene, because as outstanding as he is on punt returns, much like Devin Hester with the Bears, you can't count on those every week. A good, smart team will punt away from Jackson. There will be no shortage of touchdowns in this one, and the difference will likely come down to how Jonathan Stewart does on the ground for Oregon. Cal's defense is strong against the run, and if they can limit Stewart and put the game on Dixon's arm, they'll have a shot. But then again, Dixon has 11 touchdown passes so far this year, so for the kid whose ability to make plays through the air has annually been questioned, that may not work either.
The pick: Oregon 38, Cal 34
Bonus locks of the week:
Buffalo (+16) over Ball State
Louisville (-9) over N.C. State
Virginia (-7) over Pittsburgh
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