UNCle Tarheel?

Wilner: North Carolina the absolute favorite maybe

By Jon Wilner
Mercury News
Posted: 03/29/2009 09:25:58 PM PDT


It doesn't have four No. 1 seeds, but the 2009 Final Four has something that last year's event didn't: four schools that have won the national championship.
Clearly, the favorite is North Carolina, the unanimous preseason No. 1 and the pre-tournament betting favorite.
Loaded with future NBA draft picks and fresh off a dominating performance against Oklahoma in the South Regional final, the top-seeded Tar Heels are seeking their fifth national title and second in the past four years under Coach Roy Williams.
When their starting five has been intact, which it should be next weekend at Detroit's Ford Field, the Heels have lost only once in the past 21/2 months. Yep, they're the team to beat, unless it's ...
Connecticut, the preseason No. 2 and possessor of the best front line in all the land.
With 7-foot-3 game-changer Hasheem Thabeet in the middle and Hall of Famer Jim Calhoun in charge, the top-seeded Huskies are seeking their third national title in 11 years and have followed the same path (through the West Regional) that they used to win in 1999 and 2004.
If anything, the controversy surrounding alleged NCAA recruiting violations has unified them for a title run. So count the Huskies as the co-favorite, unless it's ...
Michigan State, the home team.
The second-seeded Spartans played one of the finest second halves of the tournament Sunday in the Midwest Regional, dominating No. 1 Louisville to earntheir fifth trip to the Final Four under Coach Tom Izzo.
And this is the shortest of the five trips, by far: Michigan State's campus is a mere 75 miles from Ford Field, which makes the Spartans the first team since Duke in '94 (in Charlotte) to play for the title in its home state. That could be decisive, unless you prefer ...
Villanova, the underdog.
The No. 3 Wildcats are the lowest seed left, which suits them just fine. They have won more games as a lower seed than any program in tournament history (think: 1985, Georgetown, 22 of 28 shooting).
And nobody — not even the homeward-bound Spartans — has more good karma than 'Nova. After thumping UCLA and Duke by a combined 43 points, the Wildcats toppled No. 1 seed Pittsburgh on a mad-dash buzzer-beater in the game of the tournament.
So pick a winner and cross your fingers. The call here is North Carolina ... until it isn't.
More winners (and some losers) from Week 2 of the tournament:
Winner: The Big East. The 24-year-old conference laid claim to having the best season of any league in college basketball history. After a regular season in which it dominated the top-25 polls, the Big East set tournament records with five teams in the Sweet 16 and four in the Elite Eight.
Loser: Arizona. The Wildcats' season began in chaos (Lute Olson's abrupt retirement) and ended in humiliation. Their 103-64 loss to Louisville was the worst by a non-16 seed in the tournament and the worst ever by a Pacific-10 Conference team in March Madness.
Winner: Scottie Reynolds. The Villanova guard made the shot of the tournament in a game for the ages, a leaning layup with 0.5 seconds left that pushed 'Nova past Pittsburgh. While it might not top the Duke-Kentucky '92 classic, Saturday's thriller is on the short list of the best non-Final Four games.
Loser: Pac-10. The conference followed an unimpressive regular season with an unimpressive NCAA tournament. After tying its record with six teams in the tournament and five in the second round, it advanced only one to the Sweet 16 (Arizona). Even more telling, the league went 1-6 against the Atlantic Coast, Big East, Big Ten and Big 12.
Winner: The mid-majors. Despite getting little respect from the NCAA selection committee, they more than held their own: eight wins, a bevy of upsets (i.e.: Cleveland State over Wake Forest) and tournament-worthy performances in all but two games.
Loser: Duke. The Blue Devils moved closer to total March irrelevance when they were blown out by Villanova in the Sweet 16.
Coach Mike Krzyzewski's team hasn't reached the Elite Eight since 2004, and four of its five losses in that span have come as a No. 1 or 2 seed.
The Devils simply aren't tough enough; they aren't good enough defensively; and they don't have enough players who can score off the dribble — three ingredients that are essential to March success.
Until or unless Krzyzewski changes the makeup of his roster, the Devils will keep rolling in December and faltering in March.